Over 6500 cr sell on 17th Oct by FIIs in cash and F&O ... followed by about 3800 cr on 18th and 2700 cr on 19th October. Thats $3.25 billion in three days ! I will wait with interest to see what happens in the next two days. A inflow of $8 billion in last two weeks has taken us up 10% on the index ... wonder what will happen if just that amount of money is withdrawn in next two weeks ? And given today's sell figures, we wont have to wait two weeks for that $8 billion withdrawal to happen .... I had said on 17th evening. As you can see, the 'cheese' for the mouse was of the highest quality, with the markets jumping up on thursday morning on the back of 'strength' shown the day before ... and then the trap snapped and the mouse got caught ! From a high of 5736 on thursday, nifty fell to a low of 5102 on friday, losing 634 points, or in percentage terms, 11% from the high ! And we have just seen $3.25 billion being withdrawn by FIIs as yet !
Expect to see a gapdown on monday morning, and once nifty breaks below 5100, we would see selling pressure that can take nifty to 5025, below which, we are headed for 4875 as suggested on 17th Oct. On the flip side, if Nifty sustains above 5260, it can do a rope trick and head for 5335-5415. However, I would not venture into going long on the back of that bounce as it would most likely get sold into and we would again head lower .... and its an expiry week to boot. So stay alert, dont be 'bull-headed' and think before you act ... do not believe blindly all the sundry rumours that float every day in the markets.
Again, I am not being a bear .. just making sure that those who read the blog dont lose their shirt and a lot more as in May 06. Its easy to buy ... but a lot more difficult to restrain the urge and 'not buy' when you see prices that are 10-15% lower they were just 48 hours ago. Trust me, if we break support on monday, 4875 on nifty wouldnt be too far away ... and though I dont intend to scare the daylights out of you, do keep in mind that IF we break 4875 with volumes, we could be headed for 4750-4650 levels in quick time, and with previous top being at 4647.95, its very likely it will break, opening up the downside to 4300 on nifty. Remember, its not outside the realms of possibility as we have seen it happen less than 18 months back in May 06, India story not withstanding.
Expect to see a gapdown on monday morning, and once nifty breaks below 5100, we would see selling pressure that can take nifty to 5025, below which, we are headed for 4875 as suggested on 17th Oct. On the flip side, if Nifty sustains above 5260, it can do a rope trick and head for 5335-5415. However, I would not venture into going long on the back of that bounce as it would most likely get sold into and we would again head lower .... and its an expiry week to boot. So stay alert, dont be 'bull-headed' and think before you act ... do not believe blindly all the sundry rumours that float every day in the markets.
Again, I am not being a bear .. just making sure that those who read the blog dont lose their shirt and a lot more as in May 06. Its easy to buy ... but a lot more difficult to restrain the urge and 'not buy' when you see prices that are 10-15% lower they were just 48 hours ago. Trust me, if we break support on monday, 4875 on nifty wouldnt be too far away ... and though I dont intend to scare the daylights out of you, do keep in mind that IF we break 4875 with volumes, we could be headed for 4750-4650 levels in quick time, and with previous top being at 4647.95, its very likely it will break, opening up the downside to 4300 on nifty. Remember, its not outside the realms of possibility as we have seen it happen less than 18 months back in May 06, India story not withstanding.
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