30 October, 2007

Rajapalayam Mills

Buy with stop 550 EOD, target 727 or higher

Gillander Arb

Buy with stop 98 EOD, target 122 or higher

Chennai Petro

Buy on all declines, stop 307 EOD, target 357 or higher

Bayer Diagnostic

Buy on all declines, stop 894 EOD, target 1235 or higher

28 October, 2007

JM Share

Buy with stop 1653 EOD, target 1805 or higher.

22 October, 2007

Sept 22 2007


IL&FS Investmart

Sell with stop 184 EOD, target 167-154

Finolex Inds

Sell with stop 76 EOD, target 58

FCS Software

Sell with stop 78 EOD, target 66.50

Bartronics

Sell with stop 234 EOD, target 180

Guj Narmada Fert

Sell with stop 138.50 intraday, target 117

21 October, 2007

Nifty ... the road ahead (Part II)

Over 6500 cr sell on 17th Oct by FIIs in cash and F&O ... followed by about 3800 cr on 18th and 2700 cr on 19th October. Thats $3.25 billion in three days ! I will wait with interest to see what happens in the next two days. A inflow of $8 billion in last two weeks has taken us up 10% on the index ... wonder what will happen if just that amount of money is withdrawn in next two weeks ? And given today's sell figures, we wont have to wait two weeks for that $8 billion withdrawal to happen .... I had said on 17th evening. As you can see, the 'cheese' for the mouse was of the highest quality, with the markets jumping up on thursday morning on the back of 'strength' shown the day before ... and then the trap snapped and the mouse got caught ! From a high of 5736 on thursday, nifty fell to a low of 5102 on friday, losing 634 points, or in percentage terms, 11% from the high ! And we have just seen $3.25 billion being withdrawn by FIIs as yet !
Expect to see a gapdown on monday morning, and once nifty breaks below 5100, we would see selling pressure that can take nifty to 5025, below which, we are headed for 4875 as suggested on 17th Oct. On the flip side, if Nifty sustains above 5260, it can do a rope trick and head for 5335-5415. However, I would not venture into going long on the back of that bounce as it would most likely get sold into and we would again head lower .... and its an expiry week to boot. So stay alert, dont be 'bull-headed' and think before you act ... do not believe blindly all the sundry rumours that float every day in the markets.
Again, I am not being a bear .. just making sure that those who read the blog dont lose their shirt and a lot more as in May 06. Its easy to buy ... but a lot more difficult to restrain the urge and 'not buy' when you see prices that are 10-15% lower they were just 48 hours ago. Trust me, if we break support on monday, 4875 on nifty wouldnt be too far away ... and though I dont intend to scare the daylights out of you, do keep in mind that IF we break 4875 with volumes, we could be headed for 4750-4650 levels in quick time, and with previous top being at 4647.95, its very likely it will break, opening up the downside to 4300 on nifty. Remember, its not outside the realms of possibility as we have seen it happen less than 18 months back in May 06, India story not withstanding.

UBI

Sell on rise, stop 158 EOD, target 130-106

Tata Honeywell

Sell with stop 1680 EOD, target 1352

Suashish Diamond

Sell with stop 182.50 EOD, target 162-144

Novopan

Sell with stop 51.50 EOD, target 42.50

MTNL

Buy with stop 165.50 EOD, target 189-210

Jenburkt

Sell with stop 33.25 EOD, target 21.25

Indotech

Sell with stop 478 EOD, target 376

IFB Agro

Sell with stop 90 EOD, target 59

Glaxo

Sell with stop 1084 EOD, target 964

Camlin

Sell with stop 161.50 EOD, target 113

Bambino Agro

Sell with stop 21.25 EOD, target 17.75 or lower

Asian Hotel

Sell with stop 665 EOD, target 535 or lower

19 October, 2007

Deja vu??

Zee Tele

Sell with stop 318 EOD, target 281-275

Tata Info

Sell with stop 226 EOD, target 169

Prithvi Info

Sell with stop 269 EOD, target 180

Micro Tech

Sell with stop 227 EOD, target 165

Maha Seamless

Sell with stop 499 EOD, target 395

Indian Bank

Sell with stop 140 EOD, target 113 or lower

Eicher Motor

Sell with stop 471 EOD, target 431 or lower

Diamond Cables

Sell with stop 338 EOD, target 271

DCB

Sell with stop 111 EOD, target 87

Crest Comm

Sell at CMP or on rise, stop 105 EOD, target 85 or lower

Asian Elect

Sell at CMP or on rise, stop 802 EOD, target 571

17 October, 2007

Nifty ... the road ahead

May 06 revisited ... SEBI issues draft guidelines, panic in the morning with markets hitting LC ... then, we have a change of scenario. As against May 06, this time we see a stunning recovery to pull back almost all the way, closing 2% down, give or take a few. So, have we become 'decoupled' from FIIs enough to go our own way and we are 'mature' enough as investors at large to know the right from the wrong ?
I sense we have an interesting scenario to pan out ... May 06 was just a proposal to levy tax by CBDT, which was a miserly 10% that we all pay. Oct 07 is a proposal to close all PNs based on derivatives. On a rough estimate, that means closing $ 25 billion plus worth of PNs and by extension, closing positions to the same tune from the markets. Yes, there is a window of 18 months to do that ... but knowing that the same has to be done, how many will wait for 6-12 months even once the proposal becomes a law ? What interest would those PN holders have to withdraw in an orderly manner as opposed to pulling out the money whichever way they feel like ?
FIIs sold over 6500 crs today in F&O and cash markets, which mean over $1.5 billion ... I will wait with interest to see what happens in the next two days. A inflow of $8 billion in last two weeks has taken us up 10% on the index ... wonder what will happen if just that amount of money is withdrawn in next two weeks ? And given today's sell figures, we wont have to wait two weeks for that $8 billion withdrawal to happen.
Most people would call me a bear and would point to the 'strong' recovery we had today. In my defense, all I would say is that I view this as not a recovery but as cheese for the mouse ...with the mindless euphoria that nothing can go wrong with India story blinding one to all reason. As always, I will stick my neck out and say that nifty will most likely go down to 4875 levels. Unless we see the PN draft notification being withdrawn completely ( which would leave SEBI and FM with egg on their face and with their credibility in tatters), I would put the odds on going down than up. So keep your eyes and ears wide open .... and dont go berserk on seeing 'red' as a traditional bull !

16 October, 2007

14 October, 2007

India Online

Buy with stop 517 EOD, target 625+

Champagne Indage

Buy with stop 706 EOD, target 771-829

11 October, 2007

VSNL

Buy at CMP or declines, stop 478 EOD, target 579 or higher

Carborandum

Sell with stop 171 EOD, target 152 or lower

EPC Irrigation

Sell with stop 42.25 EOD, target 31.75

Scandent

Sell with stop 105 EOD, target 76

07 October, 2007

Sundaram Finance

Sell at CMP or on rises, stop 453.50 EOD, target 417 or lower

Shree Cement

Buy at CMP or declines, stop 1432 EOD, target 1945

Shilp Gravur

Sell with stop 50.25, target 39-33

SS Duncan

Sell with stop 335 EOD, target 284 or lower

RPG Transmission

Buy with stop 259 EOD, target 290 or higher

Om Metal

Buy with stop 53 EOD, target 64 or higher

Ganesh Housing

Buy at CMP or declines, stop 423 EOD, target 533 or higher

Amtrex Hitachi

Sell with stop 133.50 EOD, target 119 or lower

02 October, 2007

Shiv Vani

Buy with stops 342 EOD, target 410 or higher

MGF

Buy with stop 52 EOD, target 63 or higher

Hardcastle

Buy with stop 244 EOD, target 330

Note : low volume scrip

Balaji Tele

Buy with stop 254 EOD, target 290 or higher