Up from 713 to 743 at today's close ( 755 intraday high), Bilcare needs to cross 760 for the next part of the upmove. Enjoy !
24 April, 2007
SCI
Now how many followed the break of 177 as suggested ? ;) 189 doesnt look too far now, does it ? Now for the higher targets as promised ... 204 sounds good ? with a bit of resistance around 195, I would say. Enjoy !
22 April, 2007
CMC
And now for a positional short call (many people want both sides of their bread buttered !) ... CMC can be shorted with EOD stops of 1166 for a target of 905.
BILCARE
Here's a scrip from midcap segment that is a positional buy as well. Expected to reach a target of 825, buy it at CMP or on declines with EOD stops at 632.
SCI
This one is something that isnt a trader's delight ... but when it jumps, it zooms ! I would watch for the breakout above 177, with targets of 189 to begin with .... higher targets once 189 is reached ;)
Positional Buy -- ONGC
Looks like its time this heavyweight flexed its muscles too ... while others have been having their day out in the sun ! So buy ONGC with EOD stops of 880 for a target on 1080 ;)
04 April, 2007
02 April, 2007
Da-lal Street !
The indices gapped down on the back of CRR hike announced on friday evening and never recovered from there. A carnage in the stock markets, on the back of average volumes. Second biggest fall in the history of sensex, the biggest being the one we saw in May 2006. Now, the news were bad, but not as bad as the markets made them into, I would say. Across the board indiscriminate selling ... ending in a 4.72% fall in sensex ! My views posted yesterday can be read in the light of what happened today and one can realize the import of it. Nifty breached 3660 level once again and as with earlier breach, today also was a panic/kneejerk reaction. So, sanity should return to the markets tomorrow, hopefully and we should be able to regain the 3660 level as before.
The high interest rate regime is beginning to raise red flags, as was evident from what was being said all day on various news channels by different people. What is a bigger worry is that Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan have, for the first time probably, come out with one, a GDP growth of 7.5-7% in next two years as against 9% projected by our FM & RBI and two, have advised their clients to sell India investments and shift to China and Thailand. The foreign brokerages view, to be taken with a pinch of salt always, isnt a run of the mill projection of where they see the index or what they consider fair value for the Indian markets. This, for the first time in recent years, could be a fundamental shift in their view on India, which could be a bigger problem for the RBI and the FM than inflation, in case the FIIs decide to shift even a part of their investments from India to other countries in Asia.
If the markets continue to be negative, then we have to keep the 3550-3530 level in focus, which, if broken, could activate the H&S formation on the Nifty charts ... and if that happens, its going to be ugly, with a probable target of 3060-2980 on the downside. One can now realize the importance of 3660-3550 levels ... and we hope that they dont break.
The high interest rate regime is beginning to raise red flags, as was evident from what was being said all day on various news channels by different people. What is a bigger worry is that Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan have, for the first time probably, come out with one, a GDP growth of 7.5-7% in next two years as against 9% projected by our FM & RBI and two, have advised their clients to sell India investments and shift to China and Thailand. The foreign brokerages view, to be taken with a pinch of salt always, isnt a run of the mill projection of where they see the index or what they consider fair value for the Indian markets. This, for the first time in recent years, could be a fundamental shift in their view on India, which could be a bigger problem for the RBI and the FM than inflation, in case the FIIs decide to shift even a part of their investments from India to other countries in Asia.
If the markets continue to be negative, then we have to keep the 3550-3530 level in focus, which, if broken, could activate the H&S formation on the Nifty charts ... and if that happens, its going to be ugly, with a probable target of 3060-2980 on the downside. One can now realize the importance of 3660-3550 levels ... and we hope that they dont break.
01 April, 2007
Back after an unplanned break
Not having posted on the blog for almost 3 months due to an unplanned break, I am finally back and hope to post regularly as before. Its been an eventful first three months of the year for the stock markets. The broad view posted on 1st of Jan, 2007 has been on target to a large extent, with 3660 support level holding, not withstanding the panic lows created around 3550 levels. A high of 4245 was achieved, a tad below the base target of 4300 projected. So, where do we go from here ?
Taking into account the happenings of the past three months, as long as the support levels of 3660-3550 arent violated, the medium term trend remains positive. On the upside, closing above 3905 and sustaining it would open further upsides for an attempt at the previous highs. Global cues as well as political events within have been contributing to what we have been witnessing for the past one month. Of course, the same can never be negated but their influence in the recent days has been overriding.
Q4 results for FY07 as well as guidance for FY08 is what would be an event to watch from here on, with no real surprises expected in case of the former. The latter is what would be of interest, considering the rise in crude prices, rupee appretiation, artificial price control in case of cement and steel, and rising interest rates, not in the least, with an overly aggressive Central Bank trying to control inflation by raising CRR not once or twice but thrice in a span of just over three months by 0.5% each, from a rate of 5% in Dec 06 to 6.5% by April 07 (after the recent hike announced on 30th March 07), a rise of 30% in 4 months !
Personally, I do not think raising interest rates would bring down inflation from the current 6.5% to a targetted level of 5-5.5% by itself. Inflation, in a country thats on a growth path and targetting a GDP of 9-10%, is a given and cant be wished away as its a part and parcel of that growth phase. Higher interest rates, by itself, would only hurt the large middle class on India, mostly those with home loans, whose EMI keeps increasing every few months, with them having no option but to swallow the bitter pill. The percentage increase in their EMIs has been much higher than any increase in incomes they might have seen, which would result in them cutting down expenditure to balance their budgets, leading to lower consumption per se, and hence lower demand for goods. On the other end of the spectrum, higher interest costs would lead to either the companies absorbing the same themselves and keeping the prices same, which would lead to lower profitability, including the effect of lower demand as mentioned earlier. Or, they would pass on the higher costs to the customer, which would again effect demand to a certain extent due to higher prices on one hand as well as lower demand due to reason mentioned earlier. So, where is the inflation getting cut, except to the extent that lower demand would have brought in ?
Anyways ... we would focus ourselves on the FY08 guidance as well as global cues. At least they are more understandable and have some logic !
Taking into account the happenings of the past three months, as long as the support levels of 3660-3550 arent violated, the medium term trend remains positive. On the upside, closing above 3905 and sustaining it would open further upsides for an attempt at the previous highs. Global cues as well as political events within have been contributing to what we have been witnessing for the past one month. Of course, the same can never be negated but their influence in the recent days has been overriding.
Q4 results for FY07 as well as guidance for FY08 is what would be an event to watch from here on, with no real surprises expected in case of the former. The latter is what would be of interest, considering the rise in crude prices, rupee appretiation, artificial price control in case of cement and steel, and rising interest rates, not in the least, with an overly aggressive Central Bank trying to control inflation by raising CRR not once or twice but thrice in a span of just over three months by 0.5% each, from a rate of 5% in Dec 06 to 6.5% by April 07 (after the recent hike announced on 30th March 07), a rise of 30% in 4 months !
Personally, I do not think raising interest rates would bring down inflation from the current 6.5% to a targetted level of 5-5.5% by itself. Inflation, in a country thats on a growth path and targetting a GDP of 9-10%, is a given and cant be wished away as its a part and parcel of that growth phase. Higher interest rates, by itself, would only hurt the large middle class on India, mostly those with home loans, whose EMI keeps increasing every few months, with them having no option but to swallow the bitter pill. The percentage increase in their EMIs has been much higher than any increase in incomes they might have seen, which would result in them cutting down expenditure to balance their budgets, leading to lower consumption per se, and hence lower demand for goods. On the other end of the spectrum, higher interest costs would lead to either the companies absorbing the same themselves and keeping the prices same, which would lead to lower profitability, including the effect of lower demand as mentioned earlier. Or, they would pass on the higher costs to the customer, which would again effect demand to a certain extent due to higher prices on one hand as well as lower demand due to reason mentioned earlier. So, where is the inflation getting cut, except to the extent that lower demand would have brought in ?
Anyways ... we would focus ourselves on the FY08 guidance as well as global cues. At least they are more understandable and have some logic !
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